Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:54:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
56 0x56c6…5928 other 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$23 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%35W / 63L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$16
sports 25% −$3
other 21% +$6
politics 13% +$4
economics 9% −$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.3% -11.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 27 +0.5% -9.1% 48% 7% -9.1%
≤90d 42 -0.0% -9.5% 36% 5% -9.5%
all 98 +0.9% -8.7% 36% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 4% -9.4%
10% -17.4% 2% -18.0%
15% -25.4% 1% -25.9%
20% -32.7% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses35 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage459d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 87¢ 86¢ $166 $165 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $166 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $2 $0 -18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $321 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $181 +$2 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $280 −$4 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $82 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $186 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $339 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $60 +$7 +12%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 10 $161 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $69 +$2 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $73 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $156 +$3 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $670 +$1 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $172 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $194 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 -12%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $160 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +19%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $91 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $174 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $122 +$5 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $331 +$1 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $80 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $37 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $79 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $9 $0 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $149 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $62 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $330 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 25 $122 +$2 +1%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 23 $58 −$5 -9%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $1,095 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $984 −$3 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $31 −$2 -7%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $973 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $619 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $973 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,071 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 19 $8 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $21 $0 +2%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 05 $5 −$1 -20%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? May 15 $1 $0 -26%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 13 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 88¢ $13 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $109 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $44 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $9 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $157 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $166 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $183 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $183 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $183 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $181 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $77 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $81 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $169 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.22 · official $165.22 (match) · 386 history records