Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:32:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 7 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11,276
7 days+$18,612
14 days+$17,454
30 days+$17,454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $7,325 $7,595 +$270 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6,160 $6,125 −$35 (-1%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,800 $2,250 +$450 (+25%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2,040 $1,980 −$60 (-3%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2,000 $1,960 −$40 (-2%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 11¢ $2,299 $1,770 −$529 (-23%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $992 $867 −$125 (-13%)
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 53¢ $1,060 $0 −$1,060 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5,728 +$9,367 +164%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,737 +$390 +22%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3,482 +$1,518 +44%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $12,250 +$7,336 +60%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,075 −$1,060 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,067 −$98 -9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 26 $6,179 +$1,261 +20%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 23 $3,000 −$1,147 -38%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 04 $200 +$30 +15%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Feb 12 $1,420 −$529 -37%
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 07 $580 −$30 -5%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Jan 07 $830 −$669 -81%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $8,158 +$2,144 +26%
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025? Jan 02 $10,451 +$587 +6%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 26 $646 −$416 -64%
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Dec 26 $800 −$426 -53%
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31? Dec 24 $1,320 +$48 +4%
Who will win Alycia Baumgardner vs Leila Beaudoin? Dec 20 $983 +$208 +21%
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? Dec 15 $4,700 +$175 +4%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? Dec 10 $2,400 −$2,121 -88%
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 10 $862 −$548 -64%
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $4,695 +$400 +8%
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $4,750 +$245 +5%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 07 $630 −$467 -74%
Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale? Dec 05 $2,724 −$881 -32%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 01 $405 +$8 +2%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 01 $1,854 +$28 +2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 01 $4,597 +$131 +3%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 27 $2,854 +$15 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Nov 23 $3,050 −$337 -11%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Nov 23 $7,448 +$1,942 +26%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $18,142 +$7,718 +42%
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $440 −$100 -23%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch? Nov 22 $15 +$8 +55%
Over $1.6B committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $4,905 +$90 +2%
Over $1.2B committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $4,750 +$245 +5%
Over $120M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $6,395 −$1 -0%
Over $60M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $707 −$29 -4%
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $3,192 −$772 -24%
Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $4,178 +$101 +2%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $10,900 +$4,085 +38%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $2,415 −$1,949 -81%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Nov 10 $4,901 +$418 +8%
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history? Nov 05 $5,000 +$15 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $10,227 +$148 +1%
Over 80% "For" on the Jupiter burn proposal? Nov 03 $54 +$7 +13%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 02 $5,650 −$1,900 -34%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 01 $5,000 $0 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $4,300 −$655 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 31? Oct 31 $2,888 +$112 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 58% +$75,916
politics 13% +$2,065
sports 10% −$1,205
tech 8% +$2,057
world 6% +$8,597
crypto 5% −$338
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $924 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $348 6h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2,045 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,742 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,836 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $18 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $75 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $2 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $2 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $100 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $1,000 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $20 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $47 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $2 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $933 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $1,348 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $70 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $10 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $3 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $29 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +72.4% +56.0% 100% 100% +63.1%
≤30d 6 +30.0% +17.7% 67% 67% +52.8%
≤90d 8 +20.3% +8.9% 62% 62% +36.5%
all 64 +6.1% -4.0% 58% 30% +15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 30% +15.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 22% +4.7%
15% -21.6% 16% -5.4%
20% -29.3% 11% -14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,547.30 · official $22,547.30 (match) · 1742 history records