Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:34:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56c4…fce5 crypto 1199 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$813 (-2%) realized −$677 · open −$136
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%484W / 696L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day50.3pace
Fees−$330est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$583now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$252
7 days−$616
14 days−$288
30 days+$615
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$1,137
crypto 25% −$1,449
other 11% +$144
politics 4% +$193
culture 1% −$29
world 1% −$92
finance 0% −$4
economics 0% −$34
tech 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -11.0% -19.5% 44% 44% -26.2%
≤30d 220 +7.5% -2.7% 50% 49% -5.6%
≤90d 1180 -18.0% -25.8% 41% 36% -9.5%
all 1180 -18.0% -25.8% 41% 36% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.8% 36% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.9% 30% -18.1%
15% -39.4% 26% -26.0%
20% -45.3% 22% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$19 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$583
Realized−$677
Unrealized−$136
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses484 / 696
Est. fees paid−$330
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1180 / 1199
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day50.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 1180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be at least 450k? Yes 64¢ 97¢ $100 $152 +$52 (+52%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 70¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $42 $37 −$5 (-11%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+10%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? No 32¢ $60 $12 −$48 (-80%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 49¢ 46¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 81¢ $85 $7 −$78 (-91%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 46¢ 12¢ $17 $5 −$12 (-73%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Yes 21¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-87%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 82¢ $34 $0 −$33 (-99%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 18¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 139 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $19 +$18 +93%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $14 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $10 +$8 +77%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $47 −$46 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 18 $31 +$31 +101%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $45 +$18 +40%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $34 −$33 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 17 $294 +$161 +55%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $16 −$1 -4%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $185 −$182 -98%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 17 $194 −$191 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $59 +$21 +36%
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu Jun 17 $125 −$69 -55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $67 +$14 +21%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $207 +$47 +23%
Harriet Dart vs. Katie Boulter: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $42 −$1 -3%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $58 −$58 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $15 −$14 -98%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 −$39 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $131 +$123 +93%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $17 +$40 +233%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $23 −$1 -3%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 14 $73 −$72 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $427 −$424 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $19 +$36 +197%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $164 +$90 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $24 +$34 +140%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $16 −$1 -3%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 13 $94 +$57 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $150 −$148 -99%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Rakhimova (+1.5) Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $61 −$61 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $19 +$7 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $67 +$73 +109%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $197 +$57 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $65 +$75 +114%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O Jun 13 $22 +$4 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $42 +$10 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $21 +$19 +90%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $7 +$1 +16%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $172 +$82 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $39 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $31 1h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $44 1h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $42 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 49¢ $9 15h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 49¢ $13 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $32 20h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Bebop 28¢ $10 21h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 70¢ $43 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $47 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $14 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $39 25h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 51¢ $19 37h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $34 38h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $34 38h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $45 43h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 58¢ $15 43h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $185 44h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 56¢ $194 44h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 64¢ $294 44h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $19 45h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 34¢ $14 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $60 2d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 49¢ $31 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $16 2d
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 64¢ $102 2d
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu SELL Yes 27¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $582.93 · official $582.94 (match) · 3500 history records