Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

56 0x56c3…0569 politics 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d

RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$281 (+201%) realized +$282 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +223% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +192% what you keep after slip

Net edge+192%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$47per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+192.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+54.0%	+39.4%	100%	100%	+39.4%
≤30d	2	+223.2%	+192.4%	100%	100%	+254.4%
≤90d	2	+223.2%	+192.4%	100%	100%	+254.4%
all	2	+223.2%	+192.4%	100%	100%	+254.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+192.4%	100%	+254.4%
10%	+164.4%	100%	+220.5%
15%	+138.9%	100%	+189.5%
20%	+115.5%	100%	+161.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +292% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +223% · $-wt +292% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$139 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage

Net worth$43

Realized+$282

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage33d

Avg bet$47

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	29¢	28¢	$43	$43	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	Jun 26	$28	+$15	+54%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian	Jun 01	$67	+$263	+392%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	29¢	$44	1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian	SELL Yes	99¢	$330	24d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	BUY Yes	64¢	$28	32d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian	BUY Yes	19¢	$67	32d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.70 · official $42.71 (match) · 5 history records