Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56c1…0b81 sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$65 (-6%) realized −$63 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate77%17W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$63
14 days+$63
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$149
world 17% +$12
other 12% +$64
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +59.5% +44.3% 100% 100% +44.3%
≤30d 3 +27.7% +15.5% 67% 67% +4.6%
≤90d 12 +1.4% -8.2% 75% 50% -15.1%
all 22 -7.3% -16.2% 77% 32% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 32% -15.3%
10% -24.2% 23% -23.4%
15% -31.5% 14% -30.8%
20% -38.2% 9% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$67 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses17 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage178d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Iraq 66¢ 64¢ $105 $102 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $107 +$63 +60%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $55 +$68 +124%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $93 −$92 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $97 +$33 +34%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $126 +$57 +46%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Play May 13 $179 −$177 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 13 $116 +$22 +19%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 04 $13 $0 +1%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? May 04 $13 +$1 +4%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, May 04 $32 +$1 +4%
Thunder vs. Suns May 04 $72 +$18 +26%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 27 $55 −$55 -100%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Mar 23 $13 $0 +1%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 23 $12 +$2 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 05 $8 $0 +2%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of January? Feb 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$45 in January? Feb 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 09 $17 $0 +1%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? Jan 07 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $106 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $107 8d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $55 17d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Heroic 63¢ $93 24d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff BUY T1 74¢ $97 32d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $126 38d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Play BUY 100 Thieves 76¢ $179 44d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY No 84¢ $116 53d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 83¢ $55 60d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Thunder 79¢ $72 63d
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, BUY No 96¢ $32 76d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $13 95d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $13 100d
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 BUY Yes 99¢ $13 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 113d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 86¢ $12 118d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 137d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 149d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 157d
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? BUY Yes $1 157d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$45 in January? BUY No 100¢ $16 164d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 99¢ $17 170d
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $17 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.25 · official $102.25 (match) · 40 history records