Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:48:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
56 0x56b8…0d36 sports 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$518 (+28%) realized +$507 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate70%40W / 17L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$146
14 days+$134
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 40% +$403
sports 31% +$107
other 17% +$42
world 12% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +17.8% +6.6% 65% 58% +6.8%
≤30d 35 +19.0% +7.7% 69% 57% +3.7%
≤90d 57 +29.0% +16.8% 70% 61% +21.3%
all 57 +29.0% +16.8% 70% 61% +21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.8% 61% +21.3%
10% +5.6% 53% +9.7%
15% -4.6% 40% -0.9%
20% -14.0% 26% -10.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$8 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.25 per $1 lost it wins $5.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$507
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses40 / 17
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 70
History coverage72d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 87¢ 89¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Yes 18¢ 30¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $57 +$2 +4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $32 −$14 -42%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 24 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $35 +$16 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway Jun 23 $16 +$42 +264%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $102 +$11 +11%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Argentina Jun 23 $10 +$18 +186%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $56 +$18 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$16 +40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $28 +$21 +76%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$9 +44%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $72 −$26 -36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $152 +$11 +7%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $34 +$17 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $27 +$15 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$15 +59%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND B Jun 20 $3 +$2 +93%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Jun 20 $20 +$27 +135%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND United States vs. Australia: United States O Jun 20 $6 +$6 +104%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $12 +$4 +32%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -82%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $24 −$21 -86%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $22 +$2 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $22 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $17 +$4 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 27 $10 +$3 +32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 27 $9 +$1 +16%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $2 +$7 +462%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 21 $7 +$4 +61%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 21 $7 +$1 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 18 $3 −$1 -50%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 07 $1 +$1 +88%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $32 +$14 +43%
MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch? May 01 $25 +$6 +23%
MegaETH FDV above $1.4B one day after launch? May 01 $23 +$3 +15%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $15 +$8 +52%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $2 +$4 +189%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $6 −$2 -35%
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $2 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score A BUY 43¢ $9 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $59 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Bosnia and Herzegovina BUY 11¢ $8 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Morocc BUY 50¢ $30 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 38¢ $16 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $32 2d
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes $4 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes $4 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $32 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portuga BUY 13¢ $10 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND England vs BUY 13¢ $9 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $57 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 90¢ $2 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 90¢ $99 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $56 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $43 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $12 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Argentina BUY 34¢ $10 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 4d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 AN BUY $1 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex $1 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $9 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 17¢ $2 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 24¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.53 · official $84.76 · 179 history records