Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56b5…757f crypto 563 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$166 (-2%) realized −$166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate76%428W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$118
7 days−$144
14 days−$144
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% −$196
crypto 17% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 284 -7.2% -16.0% 63% 63% -17.1%
≤30d 303 -6.0% -14.9% 64% 64% -16.8%
≤90d 563 -2.8% -12.1% 76% 54% -11.8%
all 563 -2.8% -12.1% 76% 54% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 54% -11.8%
10% -20.5% 39% -20.3%
15% -28.2% 21% -28.0%
20% -35.2% 12% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses428 / 135
Open positions0
Markets (closed)563 / 563
History coverage58d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 563 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1516 history records