Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56b4…d80e politics 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+11%) realized +$130 · open −$86
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$11
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$71
other 48% −$13
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -15.5% -23.6% 0% 0% -19.7%
≤30d 9 -5.1% -14.1% 33% 33% -8.9%
≤90d 9 -5.1% -14.1% 33% 33% -8.9%
all 9 -5.1% -14.1% 33% 33% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 33% -8.9%
10% -22.3% 33% -17.6%
15% -29.8% 33% -25.6%
20% -36.7% 22% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$130
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage23d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $72 $2 −$70 (-97%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-80%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 19¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $41 −$3 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $41 −$5 -11%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 −$3 -28%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $15 +$13 +84%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $11 −$7 -65%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 07 $1 $0 +45%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $1 $0 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $38 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $36 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $2 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 12d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland $1 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $1 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $2 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 19¢ $5 17d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 19¢ $10 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 25¢ $10 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 32¢ $21 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 32¢ $21 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 30¢ $10 17d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele BUY Yes $1 17d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 61¢ $28 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 66¢ $183 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 21¢ $10 18d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 78¢ $17 18d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 36¢ $4 18d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $4 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.17 · official $101.23 (match) · 51 history records