Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x56b2…b455
other · 297 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$40 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$40 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses97 / 198
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)295 / 297
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 1 History 295 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Tomas Etcheverry vs Terence Atmane Terence Atmane 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Akron Zips Massachusetts Minutemen 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-04-06? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Aberdeen FC win on 2026-02-15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
D.C. United SC vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 4.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Over 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-02-13? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Sebastian Baez vs Stan Wawrinka Stan Wawrinka 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-04-06? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-12? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry Tomas Etcheverry 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Men's Group B - Finland vs. Sweden Sweden 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will CA Independiente vs. CA Lanús end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
ACF Fiorentina vs. Parma Calcio 1913: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +91%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry May 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 19 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 19 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Will AJ Brown be traded? May 19 $2 +$3 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 19 $6 +$7 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 18 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 18 $6 +$5 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 18 $10 +$17 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 18 $17 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 18 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 18 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 14 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Tomas Etcheverry vs Terence Atmane Apr 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 08 $2 +$8 +519%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 08 $1 +$3 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -93%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Apr 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $3 +$13 +413%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% −$10
crypto 30% −$24
sports 27% +$13
world 2% −$14
politics 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 5¢ $1 3h
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 22d
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tomas Etcheverry 45¢ $3 23d
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 23d
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $9 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 23d
Will AJ Brown be traded? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $9 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $9 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $11 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +91.3% +73.1% 100% 100% +73.1%
≤30d 27 -2.9% -12.1% 33% 33% -26.5%
≤90d 116 -23.2% -30.6% 21% 19% -32.2%
all 295 +7.2% -3.0% 33% 32% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 32% -14.1%
10% -12.3% 32% -22.3%
15% -20.7% 29% -29.8%
20% -28.5% 26% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $1.98 · 530 history records