Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:00:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56b2…8f14 weather 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate79%110W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$44
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -10.2% -18.8% 57% 9% -14.3%
≤30d 117 -7.2% -16.0% 76% 17% -13.3%
≤90d 139 -5.4% -14.4% 79% 17% -11.5%
all 139 -5.4% -14.4% 79% 17% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 17% -11.5%
10% -22.6% 6% -20.0%
15% -30.0% 4% -27.7%
20% -36.9% 2% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses110 / 29
Open positions6
Markets (closed)139 / 145
History coverage67d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16? No 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? No 95¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? No 94¢ 64¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? No 37¢ 91¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+146%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 −$7 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 15 $3 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 11 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $0 $0 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$3 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 +$2 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 7? Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 +$3 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$1 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 26? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 29? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on May 29? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 29? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 30? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 31? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$1 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $10 30m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 78¢ $8 30m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 88¢ $9 30m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 59m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? SELL No 25¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL No 66¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? SELL No 95¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? SELL No 64¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 37¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 92¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 92¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $9 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.10 · official $51.10 (match) · 325 history records