Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:34:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
56 0x56b1…22cc other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 29% −$2
crypto 28% −$2
sports 15% −$1
politics 11% −$1
other 10% −$1
world 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 21 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 21 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage89d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Milwaukee Bucks win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 99¢ 99¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $1,270 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 22 $1,211 −$2 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $152 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $5 −$1 -10%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $153 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 17 $9 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Apr 16 $151 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? Apr 16 $153 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $150 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $150 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 03 $74 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open? Mar 30 $71 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Mar 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 25 $128 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 25 $46 $0 -0%
Will Keegan Bradley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,268 23m
Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $12 58m
Will Milwaukee Bucks win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,254 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $942 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $267 2h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 2h
Will Milwaukee Bucks win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,211 3h
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $152 61d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $152 61d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $5 64d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $5 65d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $153 65d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $153 65d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $150 65d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $150 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $9 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 66d
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL No 96¢ $150 66d
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 97¢ $151 66d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $147 66d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $148 67d
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $152 67d
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $153 67d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $153 67d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $153 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.47 · official $60.47 (match) · 60 history records