Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:30:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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56 0x56ad…f13e crypto 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$67,677 (-11%) realized +$62,747 · open −$130,424
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate57%39W / 29L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$8,372per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$14,174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,574
7 days−$6,094
14 days−$81
30 days+$48,128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$75,284
crypto 43% +$1,842
politics 6% −$2,238
economics 4% +$1,386
other 1% −$1,708
tech 0% −$79
culture 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +35.9% +22.9% 20% 20% -31.3%
≤30d 25 +8.0% -2.3% 48% 20% +7.6%
≤90d 59 -9.2% -17.9% 56% 31% +0.5%
all 68 -6.4% -15.4% 57% 34% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 34% +1.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 13% -8.3%
15% -30.8% 9% -17.1%
20% -37.6% 4% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$8,757) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,116 vs −$971 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.93 per $1 lost it wins $2.93
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$14,174
Realized+$62,747
Unrealized−$130,424
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses39 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 71
History coverage112d
Avg bet$8,372
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 70¢ 7¢ $70,145 $6,650 −$63,495 (-91%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 45¢ 3¢ $54,013 $3,988 −$50,026 (-93%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 20¢ 4¢ $20,439 $3,536 −$16,903 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $14,900 −$4,078 -27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $6,806 −$2,960 -44%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Jun 15 $1,418 −$163 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 14 $1,620 −$372 -23%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $520 +$1,480 +285%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $26,994 +$6,013 +22%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 01 $5,383 −$113 -2%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 01 $14,959 −$38 -0%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 01 $4,990 −$27 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $74,035 +$31,967 +43%
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? May 28 $3,397 −$1,711 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? May 28 $9,647 −$145 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? May 28 $2,419 −$206 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? May 27 $11,317 +$1,573 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $23,587 +$17,917 +76%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? May 24 $8,776 +$451 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? May 24 $1,980 +$115 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? May 24 $7,459 −$80 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? May 23 $8,757 −$312 -4%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? May 23 $2,415 +$97 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? May 23 $2,186 +$90 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 23 $5,226 +$33 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $2,194 −$2,182 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 23 $4,485 +$402 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 19 $8,258 +$379 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 16 $1,868 +$215 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 16 $940 +$46 +5%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $4,703 +$959 +20%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $406 +$44 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? May 11 $11,224 +$1,826 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? May 10 $7,541 −$2,498 -33%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 04 $831 +$169 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? May 01 $2,675 +$322 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 30 $9,720 +$103 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 30 $11,330 +$645 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? Apr 30 $268 +$58 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 23 $5,360 −$3,070 -57%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 21 $6,507 −$1,606 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 11 $5,372 −$2,614 -49%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 08 $7,132 +$612 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 05 $4,413 +$597 +14%
Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Na Apr 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio Apr 02 $570 −$570 -100%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $710 +$290 +41%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $180 +$20 +11%
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $53 −$53 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Apr 02 $1,559 −$1,559 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $50 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $1,330 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $5,339 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1,560 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1,806 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $2,407 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $3,134 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $672 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $2,619 5h
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? SELL No 64¢ $1,255 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $1,340 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 64¢ $1,248 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $410 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $481 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $500 39h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 81¢ $1,620 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $660 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32,320 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $2,220 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $3,520 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $3,050 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $16,266 14d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? SELL Yes 88¢ $5,270 14d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 83¢ $14,921 14d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 83¢ $4,963 14d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 82¢ $12 15d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 83¢ $39 15d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 83¢ $1,756 15d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 83¢ $6,632 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $1,212 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,173.61 · official $14,173.61 (match) · 1111 history records