Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
56 0x56ac…d77e sports 428 markets active 0h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$116,488 (-75%) realized −$116,361 · open −$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%136W / 209L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$364per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2,164est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$19,337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117,455
7 days−$117,050
14 days−$117,210
30 days−$117,205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$117,283
other 6% +$324
crypto 0% −$207
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +49.1% +34.9% 49% 38% -90.0%
≤30d 127 +39.1% +25.9% 49% 37% -89.6%
≤90d 343 +15.6% +4.6% 39% 34% -88.1%
all 345 +15.7% +4.7% 39% 34% -87.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 34% -87.9%
10% -5.3% 32% -89.0%
15% -14.5% 31% -90.1%
20% -22.9% 27% -91.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -87% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$597 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$19,337
Realized−$116,361
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses136 / 209
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$2,164
Open positions83
Markets (closed)345 / 428
History coverage189d
Avg bet$364
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 83 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $4,648 $4,588 −$60 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $2,562 $2,551 −$10 (-0%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Côte dIvoire 91¢ 92¢ $2,162 $2,174 +$12 (+1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 86¢ 86¢ $934 $939 +$5 (+1%)
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5 Under 73¢ 72¢ $943 $937 −$6 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 61¢ 60¢ $892 $885 −$7 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score No 45¢ 46¢ $734 $742 +$8 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Under 63¢ 63¢ $699 $699 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $706 $684 −$22 (-3%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score No 43¢ 42¢ $554 $548 −$6 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score No 40¢ 38¢ $489 $470 −$18 (-4%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 31¢ 32¢ $414 $421 +$7 (+2%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 Under 83¢ 84¢ $415 $418 +$2 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 38¢ $373 $368 −$5 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? No 13¢ 14¢ $202 $210 +$8 (+4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 32¢ 32¢ $151 $153 +$2 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $157 $151 −$6 (-4%)
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Yes 31¢ 32¢ $130 $136 +$6 (+5%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $126 $126 +$1 (+1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score No 68¢ 68¢ $124 $125 +$1 (+1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 69¢ 68¢ $124 $123 −$1 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Under 8¢ 8¢ $111 $118 +$7 (+6%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Ghana 42¢ 42¢ $114 $116 +$1 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Under 29¢ 28¢ $116 $112 −$4 (-3%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Over 29¢ 30¢ $103 $108 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Leinster win? Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $257 −$257 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $318 −$318 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $129 −$129 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $163 −$163 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $120,455 −$120,455 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 20 $11 +$2 +17%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$21 +206%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $433 +$455 +105%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $927 +$159 +17%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $672 +$678 +101%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $651 +$742 +114%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $996 +$644 +65%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $942 +$748 +79%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,227 +$558 +46%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $78 −$78 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $24 $0 -0%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $12 +$18 +146%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 19 $92 +$1 +1%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $90 +$69 +76%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $88 +$85 +97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $16 +$205 +1251%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $108 −$108 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $227 −$227 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $7 +$1 +16%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $8 +$2 +18%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $28 +$52 +188%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $38 +$74 +197%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $16 +$144 +874%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $75 +$92 +124%
Spread: Panama (-2.5) Jun 18 $400 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 14m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 14m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 14m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $706 14m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 91¢ $2,168 29m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 59m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $72 59m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 59m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $143 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $704 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $4,733 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $114 2h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $632 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 95¢ $10 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 84¢ $8 3h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $715 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $2,506 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $97 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $31 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 86¢ $938 5h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $951 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $497 8h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $18 9h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $118 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $903 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $380 13h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $29 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,336.73 · official $19,336.66 (match) · 1210 history records