Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56ab…784e world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$451 (+1%) realized +$216 · open +$235
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 30L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,520per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$5,738now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,705
7 days+$2,705
14 days+$2,705
30 days−$5,685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$6,725
other 34% +$1,993
finance 17% −$8,021
politics 13% −$35
crypto 1% −$333
tech 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +50.3% +36.0% 100% 50% +23.0%
≤30d 16 -34.4% -40.7% 19% 12% -20.8%
≤90d 36 -22.9% -30.3% 33% 11% -3.3%
all 45 -19.8% -27.4% 33% 13% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 13% -4.5%
10% -34.4% 11% -13.6%
15% -40.7% 9% -22.0%
20% -46.5% 9% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,525) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$755 vs −$374 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$5,738
Realized+$216
Unrealized+$235
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1,520
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? No 96¢ 100¢ $5,000 $5,206 +$206 (+4%)
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? No 94¢ 100¢ $290 $308 +$18 (+6%)
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $213 $224 +$11 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $4,994 +$309 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,537 +$2,396 +94%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 29 $1,230 −$266 -22%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? May 29 $3,866 −$3,635 -94%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? May 23 $3,025 −$1,345 -44%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $30 −$22 -73%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? May 23 $3,817 −$1,328 -35%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in May? May 23 $278 −$219 -79%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May? May 23 $1,525 −$1,493 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $30 −$15 -50%
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? May 23 $117 −$41 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 18 $15 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 18 $16 −$14 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 18 $49 −$24 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 18 $18 +$25 +138%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 18 $21 −$20 -94%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 18 $3,021 −$214 -7%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1,035 −$336 -32%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 12 $5,063 −$447 -9%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 11 $435 −$319 -73%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $2,059 −$145 -7%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? May 05 $5,251 +$95 +2%
Will Trump post "Free Tina Peters" on Truth Social this week? May 04 $32 +$2 +5%
Will Trump post "Triumphal Arc" or "Triumphal Arch" on Truth Social th May 04 $35 +$2 +6%
Will Trump post "Elon" or "Musk" on Truth Social this week? May 04 $60 +$6 +11%
Will Trump post "Third rate" on Truth Social this week? May 04 $72 +$4 +6%
Will Trump post "UFO" on Truth Social this week? May 04 $69 +$4 +6%
Will Trump post "Hell" on Truth Social this week? May 02 $29 −$15 -50%
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31? May 02 $6,265 +$484 +8%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $17,038 +$1,435 +8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 28 $825 −$300 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 08 $20 −$12 -60%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $2,621 +$6,542 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 06 $265 −$265 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 28 $10 +$12 +112%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Jan 28 $1,283 −$538 -42%
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026? Jan 28 $257 −$154 -60%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 26 $5 −$2 -33%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 25 $6 $0 -5%
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Jan 25 $15 +$1 +7%
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? Jan 24 $18 −$12 -67%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 23 $32 $0 -1%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 23 $15 +$4 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 94¢ $291 1h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 96¢ $2,002 1h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 96¢ $2,002 1h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 96¢ $1,001 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 94¢ $987 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 94¢ $1,002 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 94¢ $2,004 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 94¢ $1,002 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $508 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $2,029 9h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May SELL Yes 0¢ $5 18d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 18d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 18d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 18d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 18d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? SELL Yes 8¢ $287 24d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 24d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? SELL No 3¢ $8 24d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? SELL Yes 9¢ $138 24d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 24d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? SELL Yes 24¢ $46 24d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? SELL Yes 31¢ $29 24d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? SELL Yes 33¢ $193 24d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? SELL Yes 34¢ $42 24d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in May? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 24d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 24d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,738.08 · official $5,738.15 (match) · 601 history records