Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:25:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56aa…a8cb sports 624 markets active 2h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$237 (-4%) realized −$237 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate74%455W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$2
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$75
other 34% −$157
crypto 7% +$2
world 1% −$2
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -5.2% -14.2% 74% 29% -10.7%
≤30d 163 +1.1% -8.5% 72% 43% -10.6%
≤90d 210 -1.7% -11.1% 71% 40% -13.4%
all 617 -1.4% -10.8% 74% 39% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 39% -13.1%
10% -19.3% 27% -21.4%
15% -27.1% 20% -29.0%
20% -34.3% 15% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$237
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses455 / 162
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)617 / 624
History coverage213d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 617 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 80¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+39%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 87¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $45 +$4 +9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -50%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$11 +112%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$1 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -76%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $70 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +47%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Br Jun 15 $5 −$1 -24%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $40 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Spai BUY 2¢ $5 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 4¢ $5 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $10 29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 34h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 34h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 34h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 46h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 97¢ $10 46h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 46h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $10 2d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY England 99¢ $5 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 87¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $5 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $20 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 2d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 95¢ $10 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 99¢ $40 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 46¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.07 · official $17.07 · 1210 history records