Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:23:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
56 0x56a9…1c7f other 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$48
politics 15% −$4
sports 6% −$26
economics 5% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -15.0% 6% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 109 -6.7% -15.6% 7% 5% -9.8%
all 116 -6.3% -15.2% 7% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 4% -9.8%
10% -23.3% 4% -18.4%
15% -30.7% 4% -26.3%
20% -37.5% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage96d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $133 $134 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $55 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $249 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $69 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $70 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $273 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $40 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 01 $87 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $44 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $223 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 17 $209 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 12 $226 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 10 $210 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $220 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $455 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $225 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $212 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $222 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $236 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $219 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $216 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $231 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $441 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 19 $214 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $476 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $466 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $231 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $221 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $224 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $227 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $399 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $407 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $233 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $263 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $229 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $449 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $235 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $692 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 2d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 2d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 3d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $15 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $133 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 6d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $39 10d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $39 10d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $70 12d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $40 12d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $14 12d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $16 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 16d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 16d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 17d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 18d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 18d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 18d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 19d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.90 · official $229.90 (match) · 336 history records