Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:10:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56a8…6c17 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,573 (-20%) realized −$1,573 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%3W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$441per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$378
7 days+$378
14 days−$577
30 days−$577
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$1,610
other 49% +$1,033
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -27.1% -34.0% 17% 17% -4.5%
≤30d 18 -41.5% -47.1% 17% 17% -16.1%
≤90d 18 -41.5% -47.1% 17% 17% -16.1%
all 18 -41.5% -47.1% 17% 17% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.1% 17% -16.1%
10% -52.1% 17% -24.1%
15% -56.8% 17% -31.5%
20% -61.0% 6% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$662 vs −$171 · ×3.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,573
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses3 / 15
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage9d
Avg bet$441
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $530 +$847 +160%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $3,122 −$1,079 -35%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $203 −$198 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $52 −$51 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $135 −$132 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 22 $78 −$3 -4%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $21 −$9 -46%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $201 −$56 -28%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $62 $0 -0%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $102 −$20 -20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,291 +$1,095 +48%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $498 −$491 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $148 −$145 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $324 −$320 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 20¢ $380 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1,295 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 37¢ $509 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 65¢ $1,201 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $814 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 30¢ $103 2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 38¢ $75 3h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 3h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 23¢ $25 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $145 4h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $64 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $62 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $62 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 26¢ $462 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 27¢ $100 4h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $82 5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $78 5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $102 5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $201 5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1,013 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records