Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
56 0x56a4…e27f crypto 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,168 (+1%) realized +$1,166 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate82%137W / 31L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$532per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,145
world 0% −$9
other 0% $0
politics 0% −$13
sports 0% +$38
economics 0% $0
culture 0% +$3
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +7.1% -3.1% 67% 22% -9.7%
≤30d 16 +5.9% -4.2% 69% 31% -10.2%
≤90d 29 -8.8% -17.5% 66% 28% -9.6%
all 168 -5.6% -14.5% 82% 14% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 14% -8.5%
10% -22.7% 10% -17.2%
15% -30.2% 7% -25.2%
20% -37.0% 5% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.96 per $1 lost it wins $4.96
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$1,166
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses137 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)168 / 187
History coverage234d
Avg bet$532
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No 88¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 80¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+132%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 91¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House No 100¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 53¢ 67¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 89¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 81¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 96¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 95¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 79¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $81 +$4 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $123 −$3 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $37 −$3 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $30 −$1 -4%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 4? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 04 $2 $0 +19%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $8 −$2 -19%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $1 $0 +13%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 14 $5 +$4 +72%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 9? Apr 29 $2 $0 +10%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 23 $7 +$3 +49%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 16? Mar 23 $248 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 14? Mar 15 $248 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 12? Mar 14 $244 +$3 +1%
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Mar 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 10? Mar 12 $241 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 04 $226 +$2 +1%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $2 $0 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Feb 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 27? Feb 28 $215 $0 +0%
Will Monaco advance to the round of 16? Feb 26 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 25? Feb 26 $205 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 25 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Feb 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Feb 22 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 22 $2 $0 +15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 21? Feb 22 $225 $0 +0%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 125 Feb 18 $4 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Lakers Feb 12 $1 $0 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M Feb 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 58m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 58m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 85¢ $74 5d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 85¢ $9 5d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 85¢ $1 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 20¢ $78 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 5d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 85¢ $1 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 20¢ $30 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 5¢ $34 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $60 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $24 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $38 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $29 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 81¢ $40 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 81¢ $40 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4? BUY No 94¢ $5 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 4? BUY No 98¢ $5 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 71¢ $2 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.43 · official $96.44 (match) · 677 history records