Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56a4…30a3 crypto 708 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$237 (-14%) realized −$237 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%298W / 408L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$86
14 days−$86
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$231
weather 16% −$47
other 2% −$5
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -14.0% -22.2% 46% 46% -38.5%
≤30d 65 -14.0% -22.2% 46% 46% -38.5%
≤90d 677 -11.2% -19.7% 43% 42% -25.9%
all 706 -12.0% -20.4% 42% 41% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 41% -24.5%
10% -28.0% 41% -31.8%
15% -35.0% 41% -38.4%
20% -41.3% 39% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$237
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses298 / 408
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)706 / 708
History coverage143d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 706 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 44¢ 44¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 15 $24 −$2 -7%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $2 $0 -11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +134%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 23m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 23m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 39m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 40m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 43m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.80 · official $12.80 (match) · 1712 history records