Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:15:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56a2…e6b6 other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,463 (-3%) realized −$1,464 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%6W / 51L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$818per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$13
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$1,221
politics 38% −$26
culture 3% −$2
world 3% −$135
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 57 -2.8% -12.0% 11% 7% -12.3%
all 57 -2.8% -12.0% 11% 7% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 7% -12.3%
10% -20.5% 7% -20.7%
15% -28.1% 5% -28.3%
20% -35.2% 5% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$994) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$29 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$554
Realized−$1,464
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses6 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage87d
Avg bet$818
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $553 $554 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $283 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,258 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 15 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $822 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $886 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $994 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 04 $362 $0 +0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $558 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $823 −$1 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 25 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC end in a draw? May 25 $24 +$8 +34%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 20 $22 +$21 +93%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 08 $1,182 −$1,182 -100%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $1,153 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $3,744 −$4 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $886 −$1 -0%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,072 −$1 -0%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $3 +$2 +83%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,110 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $2,917 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 09 $37 +$41 +108%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 06 $990 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $886 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $976 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 06 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $1,187 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $282 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $283 4h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $249 21h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $250 23h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $553 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $886 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $887 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $887 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $888 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $693 10d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $694 10d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $677 10d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $678 10d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $747 11d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $748 11d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $893 13d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $894 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $727 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $728 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $852 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $854 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $821 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $822 14d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $655 18d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $656 19d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $885 19d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $886 19d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $992 20d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $994 20d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $563 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $554.20 · official $554.20 (match) · 152 history records