Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
56 0x56a0…1482 crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%40W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$6
crypto 9% +$1
other 5% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 53 +0.2% -9.3% 75% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses40 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage535d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in March? Apr 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,100 in February? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 03 $51 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? Jan 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Dec 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? Dec 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Oct 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 04 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 3 May 05 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mykel Williams be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Mar 23 $5,905 −$6 -0%
Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 03 $16 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $3750 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Feb 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Duren lead the NBA in Rebounds? Feb 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? Feb 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will another team win the Bundesliga? Jan 26 $33 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $62 2h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $55 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $16 62d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $50 63d
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $22 93d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in March? BUY No 100¢ $32 93d
Will BNB reach $1,100 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 123d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $51 123d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 99¢ $20 150d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $33 151d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 182d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? BUY No 100¢ $49 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $18 213d
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? BUY No 100¢ $46 213d
Will Solana reach $270 in October? BUY No 100¢ $10 243d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 243d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $36 243d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 100¢ $35 273d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 301d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $48 302d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $17 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $41 334d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 366d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 100¢ $17 366d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 394d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 394d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 395d
Bitcoin all time high in April? BUY No 100¢ $6 426d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.35 · official $62.35 (match) · 113 history records