Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x569c…140d
crypto · 710 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$6,840 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,836 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$172
Realized−$6,836
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses330 / 379
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)709 / 710
History coverage118d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 709 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$195
7 days−$418
14 days−$1,317
30 days−$2,644
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 59¢ 57¢ $175 $172 −$3 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $175 $0 −$175 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $175 $0 −$175 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $127 $0 −$127 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $113 +$64 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $129 −$12 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $134 +$96 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $118 +$69 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $205 −$47 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$113 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $128 +$72 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $154 −$11 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $194 +$89 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $253 −$250 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $204 +$55 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 07 $129 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 07 $258 +$133 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $592 −$180 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 07 $436 +$50 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $436 −$79 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 07 $129 −$68 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 07 $92 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 07 $152 +$24 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 07 $282 +$51 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $128 +$52 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $281 −$52 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 07 $92 −$31 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $77 +$53 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $129 +$93 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 07 $252 +$14 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 07 $77 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 07 $77 +$58 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 07 $155 +$113 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 07 $282 +$131 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 07 $103 −$43 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $266 +$68 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 07 $315 +$68 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 07 $567 +$94 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 07 $180 +$96 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 07 $390 +$221 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 07 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 07 $289 −$278 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 07 $213 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 06 $235 −$230 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 06 $436 −$425 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 06 $382 +$92 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 06 $596 +$170 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 91% −$6,607
other 5% −$503
sports 2% +$478
politics 2% −$115
world 0% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $177 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $117 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $230 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $187 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -4.2% -13.3% 60% 52% -11.8%
≤30d 310 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 44% -12.1%
≤90d 475 -10.4% -19.0% 49% 43% -13.1%
all 709 -11.6% -20.0% 47% 41% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 41% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 36% -21.6%
15% -34.7% 28% -29.2%
20% -41.1% 20% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.52 · official $171.52 (match) · 2604 history records