Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:56:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x569b…c66e other 705 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$715 (-3%) realized −$569 · open −$146
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%216W / 381L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$222est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$4,147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$489
14 days+$460
30 days−$2,205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$218
other 48% −$824
politics 3% −$99
crypto 1% −$60
world 1% +$161
weather 0% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +41.1% +27.7% 39% 39% +31.3%
≤30d 195 -30.0% -36.7% 22% 22% -42.0%
≤90d 594 -1.8% -11.1% 36% 33% -13.5%
all 597 +2.1% -7.6% 36% 34% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 34% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 32% -21.0%
15% -24.5% 29% -28.7%
20% -31.9% 23% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$27 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$4,147
Realized−$569
Unrealized−$146
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses216 / 381
Est. fees paid−$222
Open positions108
Markets (closed)597 / 705
History coverage101d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 108 History 597 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $280 $319 +$39 (+14%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $160 $234 +$74 (+46%)
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 6¢ 12¢ $85 $162 +$78 (+92%)
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 5¢ 12¢ $70 $161 +$91 (+130%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $190 $142 −$48 (-25%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 36¢ 26¢ $190 $138 −$52 (-27%)
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 27¢ $90 $135 +$45 (+50%)
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $100 $126 +$25 (+25%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $85 $117 +$32 (+38%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 51¢ 26¢ $201 $105 −$96 (-48%)
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $98 $94 −$4 (-4%)
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 20¢ $20 $80 +$60 (+302%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $26 $80 +$54 (+208%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $89 $72 −$16 (-18%)
Will Los Angeles Clippers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $89 $71 −$18 (-20%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+38%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+34%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $90 $66 −$24 (-26%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $75 $65 −$10 (-13%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $66 $62 −$4 (-6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $65 $62 −$3 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $34 +$50 +150%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$8 -73%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Iñaki Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $25 −$4 -17%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 +$39 +146%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$18 -90%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $150 −$10 -7%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $340 −$2 -1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 +$23 +88%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$10 -33%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $35 +$65 +185%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $50 +$164 +328%
Will Andoni Iraola be the next manager of AC Milan? Jun 15 $65 −$65 -99%
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $24 +$35 +146%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $25 +$319 +1277%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -99%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Jun 14 $24 −$21 -88%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 +$9 +116%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +38%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Jun 11 $26 −$14 -56%
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $0 $0 +93%
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 08 $0 $0 +46%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will Andoni Iraola be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Jun 07 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Massimiliano Allegri be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Jun 04 $20 −$18 -90%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $30 −$10 -34%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $40 −$7 -17%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 04 $10 −$7 -67%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $40 +$22 +54%
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? Jun 03 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 03 $0 $0 -30%
Will Enrique Riquelme win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 01 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $25 +$28 +110%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $61 +$43 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 57m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $34 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $34 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 25h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 27h
Will Darwin Nunez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 28h
Will Martin Ødegaard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 28h
Will Iñaki Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $21 46h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $26 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 43¢ $51 2d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 46¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 3d
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 61¢ $21 3d
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $119 3d
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $150 3d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $29 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $237 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $48 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 4d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $240 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,146.52 · official $4,141.24 (match) · 2656 history records