Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:10:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
56 0x569b…3e54 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 574d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% $0
sports 27% $0
politics 15% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 24 -7.4% -16.2% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -24.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage574d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $8 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship? Dec 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jul 16 $112 $0 +0%
Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 14 $208 $0 -0%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Jun 14 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $3 $0 -1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 15 $0 $0 -29%
Newcastle United wins the Premier League? Dec 13 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 28 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $10 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $11 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 21d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 21d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 57d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 57d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 100¢ $8 81d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $8 81d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 94d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 94d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $10 116d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $10 116d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 144d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 144d
Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship? SELL No 100¢ $10 180d
Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $10 180d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 206d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 206d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 233d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 233d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 89¢ $11 265d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 89¢ $11 265d
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $1 296d
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes $1 296d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 333d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 335d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 368d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 368d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 368d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 368d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records