Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
56 0x5699…4f3e sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$664 (+38%) realized +$693 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$458
other 22% +$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +37.9% +24.8% 50% 50% +30.9%
≤30d 14 +37.9% +24.8% 50% 50% +30.9%
≤90d 14 +37.9% +24.8% 50% 50% +30.9%
all 14 +37.9% +24.8% 50% 50% +30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.8% 50% +30.9%
10% ← realistic here +12.8% 50% +18.4%
15% +1.9% 50% +7.0%
20% -8.1% 43% -3.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +81% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$58 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized+$693
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Under 68¢ 81¢ $150 $180 +$30 (+20%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 43¢ $99 $91 −$8 (-8%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score No 55¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 +$83 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $296 +$190 +64%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $81 −$79 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$143 +47%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $90 −$89 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 −$38 -37%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $114 −$87 -76%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $81 +$200 +246%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$37 +180%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $119 +$379 +318%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $21 +$11 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$29 -58%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $49 −$35 -72%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $51 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $101 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $199 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $50 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $50 8h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $50 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $50 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $47 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $446 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $90 8h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $3 8h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $60 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $27 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $12 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 14h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 14h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $51 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $282 26h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $32 31h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 31h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 32h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $20 32h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $32 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $21 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $21 33h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.49 · official $270.51 (match) · 41 history records