Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:15:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
56 0x5697…cddf crypto 982 markets active 5d ago coverage 654d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$340 (-2%) realized −$340 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%520W / 462L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$161
14 days+$166
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$422
sports 30% +$387
politics 18% −$536
crypto 12% +$159
economics 1% −$16
world 1% +$1
weather 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +300.8% +262.6% 100% 100% +262.6%
≤30d 599 -3.4% -12.6% 52% 52% -2.9%
≤90d 762 -4.2% -13.3% 51% 51% -2.3%
all 982 -6.5% -15.4% 53% 52% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 52% -11.1%
10% -23.5% 46% -19.6%
15% -30.9% 42% -27.4%
20% -37.7% 38% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

654d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$340
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses520 / 462
Open positions0
Markets (closed)982 / 982
History coverage654d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 982 Trades
no open positions (365 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 18 $54 +$161 +301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL No 77¢ $215 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 18¢ $54 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1735 history records