Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
56 0x5696…b3aa sports 1168 markets active 2h ago coverage 738d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,253 (+2%) realized +$3,368 · open −$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%604W / 553L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3,273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$137
14 days−$68
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$2,422
other 3% +$815
politics 0% −$44
economics 0% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +30.2% +17.8% 62% 62% +10.2%
≤30d 73 +1.5% -8.1% 49% 49% -6.9%
≤90d 127 -0.7% -10.2% 50% 50% -0.1%
all 1157 +2.2% -7.5% 52% 52% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 52% -8.0%
10% -16.4% 50% -16.8%
15% -24.4% 48% -24.8%
20% -31.9% 43% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$117 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

738d coverage
Net worth$3,273
Realized+$3,368
Unrealized−$115
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses604 / 553
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1157 / 1168
History coverage738d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 70¢ 66¢ $2,898 $2,737 −$161 (-6%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 64¢ 60¢ $77 $73 −$4 (-5%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $72 $72 −$1 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 80¢ $43 $66 +$23 (+55%)
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group B Yawara Esports 70¢ 100¢ $38 $55 +$17 (+44%)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox New York Yankees 56¢ 68¢ $38 $45 +$8 (+21%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ 56¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jordan 37¢ 40¢ $37 $40 +$2 (+7%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 68¢ 68¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Yorkshire Yorkshire 43¢ 42¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Rafael Fiziev 52¢ 50¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Insomnia vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 25 $23 +$27 +114%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham Jun 25 $114 −$29 -25%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $36 +$38 +105%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $88 +$122 +138%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $52 −$51 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 24 $44 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group Jun 23 $52 +$36 +70%
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Iliyan Radulov Jun 22 $21 +$32 +152%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $42 −$42 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $26 +$17 +67%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $64 +$36 +57%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $31 +$35 +114%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 18 $39 −$38 -98%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 18 $28 −$28 -99%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $29 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 16 $35 −$35 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 16 $23 −$22 -99%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $26 +$15 +60%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $171 −$40 -23%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $30 +$20 +67%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $24 −$24 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $117 +$64 +55%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $46 +$39 +86%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $62 +$38 +62%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $69 −$68 -99%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $23 −$2 -9%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $23 +$12 +55%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 14 $39 −$38 -99%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $240 +$41 +17%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Jun 14 $26 −$26 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$13 +62%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $78 +$47 +60%
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 14 $35 −$7 -20%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 14 $54 −$53 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 14 $50 −$49 -99%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $28 +$29 +101%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $35 −$34 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $27 +$28 +105%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $23 +$34 +146%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 09 $39 −$38 -99%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 09 $24 +$41 +172%
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 09 $41 +$35 +85%
Ilkley: Linda Klimovicova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 09 $68 +$42 +62%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 09 $35 −$34 -99%
Cattolica: Liam Broady vs Ioannis Xilas Jun 08 $77 +$33 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 68¢ $27 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $45 1h
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Yorkshire BUY Yorkshire 43¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick Wor BUY Yawara Esports 70¢ $39 6h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Isurus 67¢ $114 11h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 56¢ $38 28h
Valorant: Insomnia vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY AGELITE 46¢ $23 29h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $36 29h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $52 29h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 49¢ $44 33h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group BUY ECHO 58¢ $13 3d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group BUY ECHO 58¢ $39 3d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Execration 42¢ $42 3d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 43¢ $41 4d
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Iliyan Radulov BUY Matteo Martineau 39¢ $21 4d
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Talia Gibson 38¢ $39 7d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $73 7d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $16 7d
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 63¢ $64 7d
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Texas Super Kings 46¢ $31 7d
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY LPH Gaming 66¢ $28 7d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 67¢ $808 7d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 36¢ $29 8d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $27 8d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 49¢ $35 9d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 51¢ $23 9d
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 52¢ $15 9d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 69¢ $52 9d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 59¢ $24 9d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 49¢ $50 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,273.12 · official $3,273.13 (match) · 2754 history records