Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:06:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5695…60e9 weather 474 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$243 (+1%) realized +$217 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate81%381W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days−$29
14 days−$468
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -7.7% -16.5% 80% 32% -10.0%
≤30d 317 -2.7% -12.0% 81% 26% -8.1%
≤90d 472 -0.2% -9.7% 81% 30% -7.8%
all 472 -0.2% -9.7% 81% 30% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 30% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 13% -16.6%
15% -26.2% 6% -24.7%
20% -33.5% 4% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$21 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$326
Realized+$217
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses381 / 91
Open positions2
Markets (closed)472 / 474
History coverage40d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 472 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? No 90¢ 100¢ $200 $221 +$21 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $162 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 +$17 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 +$26 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $168 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $99 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $101 +$13 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $54 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $201 +$25 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $178 +$14 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$16 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$14 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $48 +$13 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $55 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $76 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $74 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$4 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$15 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $37 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$26 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$7 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$5 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $100 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $100 5h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $19 14h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $13 14h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $30 15h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $100 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $100 15h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $13 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $38 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $50 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $100 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $47 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $17 21h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $100 21h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $101 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $36 21h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $68 25h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $100 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $99 30h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $100 32h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $101 38h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 89¢ $54 39h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $25 45h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $76 45h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $100 45h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $100 45h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $88 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $90 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $326.37 · official $326.37 (match) · 1374 history records