Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:12:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5691…1a10 other 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%18W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$35
politics 24% −$27
sports 22% −$11
economics 7% −$3
world 5% −$3
crypto 5% −$6
culture 4% −$8
finance 2% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.6% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 64 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 115 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 146 -0.6% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses18 / 128
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage109d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ Jun 19 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 19 $157 −$1 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $60 −$2 -3%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $48 −$2 -3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 16 $55 −$3 -5%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $39 −$1 -3%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $111 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $9 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $58 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $145 −$1 -1%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $101 $0 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $59 −$2 -4%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $227 −$3 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $241 −$4 -2%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Ori Jun 12 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $47 $0 +1%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 11 $49 $0 -1%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $54 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $85 $0 -0%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $59 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $270 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 07 $59 +$1 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 07 $57 −$1 -3%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $260 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $166 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $96 −$2 -2%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $110 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 03 $40 −$1 -3%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $59 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 02 $59 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $451 −$3 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $101 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $53 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $53 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $53 8h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $57 9h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $57 16h
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ SELL No 95¢ $31 16h
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ BUY No 97¢ $31 21h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $39 21h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $39 28h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $48 29h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $48 33h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $44 33h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 37h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $50 38h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $50 46h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $58 47h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $60 2d
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $47 2d
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $48 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $42 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $42 2d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 3d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $48 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $49 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 89¢ $52 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $55 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $38 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $1 4d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.74 · official $52.74 (match) · 568 history records