Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:22:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
56 0x568e…40bc other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$142 (+32%) realized +$136 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +10.8% +0.2% 60% 60% +37.6%
≤30d 5 +10.8% +0.2% 60% 60% +37.6%
≤90d 5 +10.8% +0.2% 60% 60% +37.6%
all 5 +10.8% +0.2% 60% 60% +37.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 60% +37.6%
10% -9.3% 60% +24.5%
15% -18.1% 60% +12.4%
20% -26.1% 40% +1.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$5 · ×9.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.74 per $1 lost it wins $13.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized+$136
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $65 $66 +$1 (+1%)
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 36¢ 39¢ $37 $40 +$3 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $71 +$42 +59%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $51 +$51 +101%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$5 -46%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $66 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $141 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $98 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $38 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $113 4h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $102 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $71 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $51 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.42 · official $205.52 (match) · 12 history records