Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x568d…b9c8
crypto · 51 markets active 1h ago
6.5score
+$415 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$416 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$99
Realized+$416
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses22 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage71d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 1 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days+$727
14 days+$727
30 days+$727
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 −$11 -53%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 +$13 +12%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $2,034 +$171 +8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $656 +$639 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 28 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 27 $8 −$7 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 27 $29 −$27 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 27 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 27 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 27 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 27 $21 +$59 +287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 27 $20 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 25 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 25 $100 +$75 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 25 $20 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 25 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 25 $20 +$38 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 25 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 25 $14 +$18 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 23 $30 +$65 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 23 $20 +$30 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 20 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 19 $10 +$22 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 19 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 19 $565 −$145 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 16 $15 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 16 $15 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $776 −$140 -18%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $889 −$132 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $273 +$156 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 77% +$393
crypto 12% −$49
other 11% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 49m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $113 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 22h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 43h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,005 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 92¢ $965 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 8¢ $69 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 12¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $10 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $8 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $10 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $19 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $20 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $10 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $20 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $10 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $20 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $30 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $10 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $10 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $10 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $10 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $7 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $80 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -17.1% -25.0% 57% 43% +12.3%
≤30d 7 -17.1% -25.0% 57% 43% +12.3%
≤90d 50 -10.5% -19.1% 44% 42% -3.6%
all 50 -10.5% -19.1% 44% 42% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 42% -3.6%
10% -26.8% 34% -12.8%
15% -33.9% 28% -21.2%
20% -40.4% 26% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.15 · official $99.15 (match) · 158 history records