Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x568b…0b3b crypto 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3362 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25,668 (+105%) realized +$24,334 · open +$1,334
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate71%34W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day3362.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,588
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3362 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +7.5% -2.8% 71% 42% -8.1%
≤30d 48 +7.5% -2.8% 71% 42% -8.1%
≤90d 48 +7.5% -2.8% 71% 42% -8.1%
all 48 +7.5% -2.8% 71% 42% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3362.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.8% 42% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -12.1% 17% -16.9%
15% -20.6% 4% -24.9%
20% -28.3% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
42.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$100 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5,298
Realized+$24,334
Unrealized+$1,334
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses34 / 14
Open positions31
Markets (closed)48 / 79
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$309
Trades / day3362.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 66¢ 100¢ $190 $289 +$98 (+52%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 61¢ 100¢ $175 $285 +$110 (+63%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 76¢ 100¢ $216 $284 +$68 (+31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 64¢ 100¢ $182 $283 +$101 (+55%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 75¢ 100¢ $203 $270 +$67 (+33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 72¢ 100¢ $191 $265 +$74 (+39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 80¢ 100¢ $206 $259 +$53 (+26%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 70¢ 100¢ $177 $252 +$76 (+43%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 80¢ 100¢ $200 $249 +$49 (+25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 77¢ 100¢ $192 $248 +$57 (+30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 77¢ 100¢ $183 $236 +$53 (+29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 70¢ 100¢ $156 $223 +$67 (+43%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 77¢ 100¢ $166 $216 +$50 (+30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 63¢ 100¢ $132 $209 +$76 (+57%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 86¢ 100¢ $162 $188 +$26 (+16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 84¢ 100¢ $152 $181 +$30 (+20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 90¢ 100¢ $153 $170 +$17 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 73¢ 100¢ $108 $148 +$40 (+37%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 68¢ 100¢ $97 $142 +$45 (+46%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 85¢ 100¢ $107 $125 +$18 (+17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 96¢ 100¢ $100 $105 +$4 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 60¢ 100¢ $62 $104 +$41 (+67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 81¢ 100¢ $82 $100 +$19 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 77¢ 100¢ $75 $98 +$22 (+30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 78¢ 100¢ $70 $90 +$19 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $374 −$148 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $313 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $294 +$70 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $335 +$77 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $218 +$49 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $481 −$190 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $303 +$35 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $185 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $332 −$58 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $404 +$42 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $475 −$73 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $219 +$32 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $360 +$25 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $453 +$97 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $352 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $415 −$15 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $386 −$103 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $280 +$54 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $258 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $343 +$40 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $321 +$84 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $300 +$25 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $269 +$38 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $278 +$43 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $245 −$15 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $385 −$32 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $194 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $466 −$23 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $420 +$50 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $310 +$80 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $359 +$45 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $239 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $493 +$39 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $423 −$229 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $329 +$31 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $295 −$30 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $490 −$76 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $320 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $268 +$57 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $218 +$19 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $361 +$81 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $409 −$194 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $613 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $275 +$35 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $525 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $371 −$212 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $227 +$82 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $120 +$329 +273%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $18 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $28 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $28 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $24 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $28 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $24 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $24 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $24 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,297.74 · official $5,297.74 (match) · 3500 history records