Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:20:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5686…60a6 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 38L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$8
other 14% −$1
crypto 3% +$1
world 2% +$1
sports 2% +$25
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 +5.1% -4.9% 19% 6% -7.0%
≤90d 38 +7.8% -2.4% 24% 8% -7.7%
all 50 +5.8% -4.2% 24% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 6% -9.2%
10% -13.4% 6% -17.9%
15% -21.8% 6% -25.8%
20% -29.4% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×8.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage620d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $10 +$9 +83%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $23 $0 +1%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $68 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $62 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $63 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 18 $7 +$9 +129%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $56 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $9 +$8 +86%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? May 07 $23 $0 +2%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 27 $49 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 18 $51 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 10 $7 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 10 $7 $0 +2%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 05 $27 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $15 $0 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $17 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $11 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $196 −$2 -1%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $227 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $1,732 −$3 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $946 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 17h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 17h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 32h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 33h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $12 6d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $12 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 8d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $10 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 12d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $19 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $15 25d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $15 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $23 26d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.99 · official $43.99 (match) · 264 history records