Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:46:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
56 0x5685…62e2 politics 269 markets active 7h ago coverage 685d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$46,140 (+6%) realized +$35,518 · open +$10,622
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate81%202W / 46L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$3,025per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$79,746now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$1,637
14 days+$1,672
30 days+$2,676
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$28,268
politics 34% +$5,070
other 13% +$4,499
crypto 7% +$5,657
sports 3% +$861
finance 1% +$569
tech 0% −$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +14.9% +3.9% 100% 67% +8.5%
≤30d 8 +4.8% -5.2% 88% 50% +0.3%
≤90d 22 +4.5% -5.5% 73% 32% -3.4%
all 248 +3.1% -6.7% 81% 19% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 19% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 5% -14.4%
15% -23.8% 2% -22.7%
20% -31.3% 2% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$4,499) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$269 vs −$443 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

685d coverage
Net worth$79,746
Realized+$35,518
Unrealized+$10,622
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses202 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions21
Markets (closed)248 / 269
History coverage685d
Avg bet$3,025
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? No 78¢ 99¢ $13,247 $16,892 +$3,644 (+28%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 68¢ 90¢ $10,003 $13,176 +$3,173 (+32%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 85¢ 86¢ $9,166 $9,272 +$106 (+1%)
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 85¢ 94¢ $6,150 $6,784 +$635 (+10%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $5,811 $6,372 +$561 (+10%)
Kurds declare independence from Iran? No 87¢ 99¢ $5,424 $6,176 +$752 (+14%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 88¢ 100¢ $4,366 $4,929 +$562 (+13%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $3,667 $3,831 +$165 (+4%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $3,008 $3,124 +$116 (+4%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 67¢ 82¢ $2,000 $2,442 +$442 (+22%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 72¢ 84¢ $2,000 $2,355 +$355 (+18%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $1,455 $1,464 +$9 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes 80¢ 85¢ $1,300 $1,383 +$83 (+6%)
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $303 $301 −$2 (-1%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 76¢ 81¢ $200 $213 +$13 (+7%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 95¢ 98¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 80¢ 96¢ $23 $28 +$5 (+20%)
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? Yes 79¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No 88¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $101 +$13 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,204 +$140 +6%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $5,897 +$1,484 +25%
Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the f Jun 06 $327 +$35 +11%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $8,803 +$508 +6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 29 $5,486 +$662 +12%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $1,201 +$16 +1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 22 $507 −$182 -36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 16 $4,000 +$238 +6%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 12 $1,000 −$88 -9%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary ele May 06 $9,088 +$515 +6%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 01 $6,117 +$216 +4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 16 $3,778 −$53 -1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 16 $4,400 −$528 -12%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30? Apr 15 $2,000 +$22 +1%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30? Apr 14 $2,000 +$17 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 14 $1,514 −$155 -10%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $41 +$28 +67%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $18,457 +$1,429 +8%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 01 $2,931 +$328 +11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $7,129 +$1,960 +28%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Mar 25 $1,622 −$619 -38%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Mar 17 $2,003 +$175 +9%
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Mar 02 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $8,200 +$790 +10%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Mar 02 $2,271 +$365 +16%
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? Feb 28 $3,501 −$24 -1%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Feb 28 $2,100 −$53 -2%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $25 +$15 +62%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 25 $1,532 −$102 -7%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Feb 23 $650 +$11 +2%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 21 $2,216 +$760 +34%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Feb 10 $1,001 −$26 -3%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Feb 10 $503 −$241 -48%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 10 $8,354 +$502 +6%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside Feb 03 $1 $0 +11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 01 $613 +$7 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 01 $1,273 +$107 +8%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jan 31 $73 −$14 -19%
Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illin Jan 28 $23 −$5 -23%
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Jan 28 $89 +$19 +22%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $504 +$1,103 +219%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $297 +$29 +10%
Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5 Jan 26 $400 +$18 +4%
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Jan 24 $300 +$13 +4%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Jan 23 $885 −$7 -1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 18 $300 −$3 -1%
Will Yoweri Kaguta Museveni win the 2026 Ugandan presidential election Jan 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 17 $1,200 +$75 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 81¢ $340 6h
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $101 6h
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 6h
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 BUY Yes 83¢ $100 6h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 80¢ $1,000 6h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,641 6h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 79¢ $115 6h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 88¢ $101 41h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $101 41h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $116 42h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY No 95¢ $100 42h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1,000 42h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $1,006 42h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2,221 42h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $502 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $502 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1,111 2d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $2,012 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3,122 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $343 3d
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 3d
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1,000 3d
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $201 3d
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 3d
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 3d
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 3d
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $242 5d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79,746.45 · official $79,750.65 (match) · 1633 history records