Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:21:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5685…061b crypto 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$924 (-26%) realized −$947 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%28W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day63.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,013
other 3% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -21.5% -29.0% 40% 33% -39.3%
≤30d 70 -21.5% -29.0% 40% 33% -39.3%
≤90d 70 -21.5% -29.0% 40% 33% -39.3%
all 70 -21.5% -29.0% 40% 33% -39.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.0% 33% -39.3%
10% ← realistic here -35.8% 30% -45.2%
15% -42.0% 29% -50.5%
20% -47.7% 24% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$41 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$947
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses28 / 42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage4d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day63.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 40¢ 50¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$7 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $129 −$116 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $77 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $125 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $119 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $77 +$50 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $62 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$34 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$66 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $113 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$62 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$9 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $147 −$129 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$18 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $42 +$101 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $106 +$73 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $61 +$26 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $37 +$63 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $206 −$179 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$24 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$8 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $98 −$95 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $8 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $9 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $17 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $9 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $30 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $78 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.60 · official $122.60 (match) · 275 history records