Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5684…23a2 world 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$38 (-2%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate36%31W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$4
other 26% −$37
politics 12% +$4
crypto 4% −$1
finance 4% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.9% -12.1% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 24 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -9.8%
all 85 -1.6% -11.0% 36% 1% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 1% -11.2%
10% -19.5% 0% -19.7%
15% -27.3% 0% -27.4%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses31 / 54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage320d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $61 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $61 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $119 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $60 +$2 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $66 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $87 −$2 -2%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $61 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $61 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $6 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $61 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $61 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $7 $0 +3%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Dec 24 $6 −$3 -50%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $11 $0 +2%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $43 −$38 -88%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Nov 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $33 +$4 +10%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in Septe Oct 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 29 $49 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 21 $2 $0 +7%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $52 1m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $52 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $16 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $11 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $15 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 70¢ $7 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $3 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $43 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $7 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $4 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $33 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $23 39h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $34 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $16 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $11 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $42 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $20 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $48 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 323 history records