Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:11:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5683…0b16 crypto 213 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$62 (-3%) realized −$61 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate55%117W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$14
14 days−$18
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$73
other 2% −$12
sports 1% −$7
world 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -11.3% -19.7% 53% 43% -10.9%
≤30d 118 -29.8% -36.4% 40% 33% -26.7%
≤90d 135 -28.0% -34.9% 40% 33% -25.8%
all 212 -12.9% -21.2% 55% 33% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 33% -13.7%
10% -28.7% 23% -21.9%
15% -35.6% 16% -29.5%
20% -41.9% 12% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses117 / 95
Open positions1
Markets (closed)212 / 213
History coverage137d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$11 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $6 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.80 · official $0.80 (match) · 627 history records