Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5677…2423 crypto 624 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$33 (+1%) realized +$38 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%343W / 280L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$42
14 days−$40
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -17.7% -25.6% 51% 51% -25.8%
≤30d 137 -7.3% -16.2% 58% 58% -15.7%
≤90d 623 -2.2% -11.5% 55% 55% -10.5%
all 623 -2.2% -11.5% 55% 55% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 55% -10.5%
10% -20.0% 55% -19.1%
15% -27.7% 53% -26.9%
20% -34.8% 39% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses343 / 280
Open positions1
Markets (closed)623 / 624
History coverage66d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 623 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 252 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +49%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +88%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 34h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 40h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1037 history records