Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
56 0x5672…7c9d crypto 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$19,558 (-23%) realized −$19,558 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%41W / 40L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,065per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,950
7 days−$12,462
14 days−$12,462
30 days−$12,462
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$18,295
other 7% −$4,065
world 5% −$173
finance 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -5.7% -14.7% 54% 54% -51.2%
≤30d 13 -5.7% -14.7% 54% 54% -51.2%
≤90d 20 -6.3% -15.2% 55% 50% -49.6%
all 81 -11.9% -20.3% 51% 44% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 44% -33.2%
10% -27.9% 36% -39.6%
15% -34.9% 31% -45.5%
20% -41.3% 21% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$1,200) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$357 vs −$929 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19,558
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses41 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage131d
Avg bet$1,065
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $677 −$677 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $464 +$212 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $436 +$159 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $6,194 −$5,551 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $155 +$113 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $2,043 +$822 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $2,078 +$2,554 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $1,250 −$1,200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $521 +$757 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $4,140 −$4,140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $2,003 −$1,938 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $1,621 +$376 +23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5,563 −$3,950 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 16 $397 −$397 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 16 $990 −$990 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 16 $949 +$42 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 16 $594 −$576 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 16 $92 +$40 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 14 $397 +$364 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 05 $333 +$360 +108%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 15? Mar 16 $1,099 −$1,099 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 15 $79 −$8 -10%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 15 $193 −$115 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 02 $148 −$147 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 02 $335 −$186 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 02 $204 +$131 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 02 $300 −$296 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Feb 27 $371 −$367 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Feb 27 $173 +$198 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Feb 27 $118 +$56 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Feb 27 $52 +$65 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Feb 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Feb 27 $43 +$58 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Feb 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Feb 27 $359 −$354 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Feb 27 $302 +$257 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 27 $200 −$198 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Feb 27 $112 +$273 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 22 $646 −$646 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 22 $904 −$258 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 22 $653 +$251 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 22 $390 +$263 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Feb 22 $368 +$23 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7PM ET Feb 22 $393 −$393 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 21 $373 +$19 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Feb 21 $570 −$565 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 21 $555 +$15 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 21 $466 +$89 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $677 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $464 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $465 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $281 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $267 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $169 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1,112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $781 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $161 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $173 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1,514 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $546 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $370 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $706 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $997 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2,865 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $679 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $718 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $647 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $414 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $659 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $470 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $459 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 231 history records