Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:28:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x566e…8de4 weather 356 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$89 (-3%) realized −$114 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate83%295W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$64
14 days−$94
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -3.5% -12.7% 93% 2% -14.3%
≤30d 267 -2.3% -11.6% 91% 6% -13.2%
≤90d 354 -3.6% -12.7% 83% 19% -14.2%
all 354 -3.6% -12.7% 83% 19% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 19% -14.2%
10% -21.1% 16% -22.4%
15% -28.7% 12% -29.9%
20% -35.7% 6% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses295 / 59
Open positions2
Markets (closed)354 / 356
History coverage37d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 354 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? No 67¢ 100¢ $50 $74 +$24 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $37 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $50 −$36 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 27? Jun 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 27? Jun 27 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 27? Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $9 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 27? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 25? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 26? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 26? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 26? Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C or below on June 2 Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C or below on June 2 Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 24? Jun 25 $13 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 25? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 24 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 24 $13 −$5 -40%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$9 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 67¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 67¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 67¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 67¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 67¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 67¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 67¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 82¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 28? SELL No 26¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 28? SELL No 30¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 88¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $50 8h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $50 11h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $50 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $50 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $9 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $4 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.41 · official $79.41 (match) · 826 history records