Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
56 0x566c…d1e0 sports 101 markets active 1d ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+6%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate62%62W / 38L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$22
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$20
world 5% −$2
politics 4% −$3
other 2% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -31.4% -38.0% 47% 47% -38.1%
≤30d 100 +0.6% -8.9% 62% 53% -6.5%
≤90d 100 +0.6% -8.9% 62% 53% -6.5%
all 100 +0.6% -8.9% 62% 53% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 53% -6.5%
10% -17.7% 45% -15.5%
15% -25.6% 39% -23.6%
20% -32.9% 29% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses62 / 38
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage27d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? No 76¢ 87¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$7 -69%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +18%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $4 +$2 +56%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +38%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +51%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $4 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $12 +$4 +30%
Birmingham: Billy Harris vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 05 $5 +$4 +78%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $2 +$4 +213%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $7 +$2 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 04 $5 +$10 +203%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $5 +$7 +132%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $3 +$2 +74%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $2 $0 +11%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $2 $0 +11%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5) Jun 01 $3 +$3 +103%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +25%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +14%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +21%
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Gloucestershire Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 167.5 May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics May 30 $3 +$4 +137%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $3 +$1 +26%
World Championships: Norway vs. Latvia May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs May 28 $3 +$2 +88%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5) May 28 $3 +$3 +107%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 27 $2 +$1 +41%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $5 +$3 +58%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 25 $3 +$3 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 71¢ $2 30h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 21¢ $2 34h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 13¢ $2 34h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 12¢ $2 34h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 13¢ $2 34h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 66¢ $2 34h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 65¢ $2 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $2 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $4 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $2 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $2 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $4 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $2 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 6d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team $2 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 13¢ $2 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team $2 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team $2 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.86 · official $2.86 (match) · 410 history records