trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 17% | 0% | -8.9% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 7% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 7% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 24 | -7.6% | -16.4% | 29% | 4% | -11.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.4% | 4% | -11.5% |
| 10% | -24.4% | 0% | -20.0% |
| 15% | -31.7% | 0% | -27.7% |
| 20% | -38.4% | 0% | -34.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 70¢ | 70¢ | $13 | $13 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 81¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-7%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 85¢ | 78¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-8%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 16 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 15 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 14 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $16 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 10 | $42 | +$2 | +5% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 09 | $12 | $0 | -2% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 08 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 08 | $50 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 07 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $43 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 05 | $49 | −$1 | -2% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 04 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Jun 19 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? | Jun 03 | $10 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 18 | $2 | $0 | +21% |
| Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Apr 18 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? | Apr 17 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? | Apr 15 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Dillon Danis win the match? | Apr 03 | $13 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? | Mar 30 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |