Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x566b…3566 world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% $0
other 17% −$13
politics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.9% -10.3% 17% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 14 -0.8% -10.3% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -0.8% -10.3% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 24 -7.6% -16.4% 29% 4% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 4% -11.5%
10% -24.4% 0% -20.0%
15% -31.7% 0% -27.7%
20% -38.4% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage447d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 70¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 78¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $42 +$2 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $12 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $50 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $49 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 18 $2 $0 +21%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Apr 03 $13 $0 -3%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $32 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $45 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $44 45h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 75¢ $44 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $40 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $21 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $42 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $11 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $12 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $47 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $47 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $38 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $42 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $26 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $18 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $42 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $5 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $7 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $12 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $42 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.30 · official $13.39 (match) · 88 history records