Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:05:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
56 0x5669…0f13 finance 405 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 131d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,667 (+3%) realized +$1,340 · open +$327
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate61%232W / 146L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$3,494now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days+$410
14 days+$520
30 days+$875
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$476
finance 26% +$349
other 18% −$1
tech 6% +$26
sports 3% +$100
politics 1% +$100
economics 0% −$2
culture 0% +$32
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -0.3% -9.8% 69% 45% -6.0%
≤30d 169 +7.5% -2.7% 65% 41% -5.9%
≤90d 270 +2.6% -7.2% 63% 36% -7.0%
all 378 +3.7% -6.2% 61% 36% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 36% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 20% -16.3%
15% -23.4% 12% -24.3%
20% -30.9% 8% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$30 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$3,494
Realized+$1,340
Unrealized+$327
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses232 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions27
Markets (closed)378 / 405
History coverage131d ⚠
Avg bet$139
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 378 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 83¢ 89¢ $682 $734 +$52 (+8%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 47¢ 60¢ $358 $458 +$100 (+28%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? No 66¢ 92¢ $271 $379 +$108 (+40%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 35¢ 70¢ $152 $308 +$156 (+103%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 44¢ 68¢ $193 $302 +$109 (+56%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $230 $232 +$2 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 32¢ 34¢ $194 $207 +$13 (+7%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 17? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $155 $159 +$4 (+3%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 16¢ 10¢ $212 $123 −$89 (-42%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? No 60¢ 90¢ $55 $84 +$29 (+52%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $93 $81 −$11 (-12%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 41¢ 54¢ $56 $73 +$17 (+30%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $27.5B? Yes 89¢ 74¢ $87 $72 −$15 (-18%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+6%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? No 72¢ 96¢ $36 $48 +$12 (+34%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 74¢ 98¢ $33 $43 +$11 (+32%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 6¢ 2¢ $106 $32 −$74 (-70%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No 38¢ 38¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $810 in June? No 93¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+6%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 61¢ 68¢ $13 $14 +$2 (+12%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $30B? No 41¢ 20¢ $29 $14 −$15 (-53%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $47 $11 −$35 (-75%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $17 $8 −$9 (-54%)
Weed rescheduled by June 30? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $76 +$6 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $226 +$62 +27%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $92 −$88 -96%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $512 −$70 -14%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $294 +$6 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +33%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? Jun 16 $372 +$85 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $647 +$42 +6%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $176 −$176 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 16? Jun 16 $310 +$77 +25%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16? Jun 16 $42 −$42 -99%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 16? Jun 16 $45 −$31 -69%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $115 +$21 +18%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $245 +$155 +64%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $344 +$56 +16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? Jun 15 $358 +$26 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 15 $173 −$112 -64%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $19 −$17 -92%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 15? Jun 15 $275 −$31 -11%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $294 +$69 +23%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? Jun 15 $47 −$25 -53%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $3,009 +$142 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 15 $162 +$28 +17%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $310 +$59 +19%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 15? Jun 15 $76 +$8 +11%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $96 −$71 -74%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 14 $51 +$14 +28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $990 −$144 -14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $36 +$80 +222%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 14 $59 +$21 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $89 +$11 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $620 +$69 +11%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $117 +$83 +70%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $380 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $82 +$8 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 13 $176 −$3 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $833 +$37 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $950 +$48 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $488 +$12 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $112 +$12 +10%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam? Jun 13 $189 −$188 -99%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam? Jun 13 $119 −$83 -69%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $125 +$75 +60%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $489 +$16 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $310 +$39 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $312 +$147 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $24 2m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 4m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $11 4m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 4m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $78 27m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 3¢ $39 27m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $102 40m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 10¢ $13 47m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 27¢ $54 49m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $1 50m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $59 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $58 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 74¢ $152 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 63¢ $129 1h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY No 9¢ $18 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 32¢ $64 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $139 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $156 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $159 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $96 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $17 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 27¢ $42 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 27¢ $8 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $93 4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 40¢ $81 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $17 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $86 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $16 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 27¢ $4 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $50 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,493.58 · official $3,522.34 (match) · 3500 history records