Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:59:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5669…e679 crypto 848 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$93 (+3%) realized +$77 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%265W / 550L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$4
14 days−$54
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -17.3% -25.2% 29% 29% -10.6%
≤30d 577 -4.8% -13.9% 33% 33% -5.0%
≤90d 815 -11.9% -20.3% 33% 32% -10.4%
all 815 -11.9% -20.3% 33% 32% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 32% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 32% -19.0%
15% -34.9% 32% -26.8%
20% -41.3% 32% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses265 / 550
Open positions1
Markets (closed)815 / 848
History coverage46d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 815 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 19¢ 80¢ $5 $21 +$16 (+318%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$5 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$10 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$21 +663%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$6 +289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$13 +584%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$17 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$10 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $15 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.92 · official $18.03 · 1692 history records