Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:00:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
56 0x5668…eaba sports 499 markets active 2h ago coverage 360d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,427 (-1%) realized −$1,329 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%238W / 258L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$340per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$686est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$652now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days+$3
14 days−$66
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$4,528
other 27% −$5,945
crypto 1% −$448
politics 1% +$100
world 0% −$545
culture 0% +$339
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -17.9% -25.7% 44% 44% -9.4%
≤30d 55 -17.7% -25.6% 44% 42% -9.9%
≤90d 322 +0.1% -9.4% 49% 48% -14.2%
all 496 -3.5% -12.7% 48% 46% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 46% -9.3%
10% -21.0% 44% -18.0%
15% -28.7% 42% -25.9%
20% -35.6% 39% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$183 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

360d coverage
Net worth$652
Realized−$1,329
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses238 / 258
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$686
Open positions3
Markets (closed)496 / 499
History coverage360d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 496 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $250 $249 −$1 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $250 $213 −$37 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $250 $190 −$60 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $67 +$62 +93%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $689 +$304 +44%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $101 +$65 +65%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 23 $51 +$41 +80%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $51 −$30 -59%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $203 +$213 +105%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $202 −$202 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$35 -68%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $102 −$38 -38%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 −$8 -8%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $76 −$75 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $301 +$58 +19%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $201 +$60 +30%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $152 +$80 +53%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $102 +$96 +95%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$57 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $56 +$46 +83%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$133 +66%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$121 +119%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $56 −$55 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$252 +50%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $56 +$48 +86%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $517 −$510 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $253 −$161 -64%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $85 −$33 -39%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $51 +$76 +149%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $101 +$65 +65%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $102 −$70 -69%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3,011 +$410 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $127 +$196 +154%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $203 +$197 +97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $406 +$462 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $67 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $993 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $689 6h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $101 9h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 9h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $101 9h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $101 23h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals SELL Yes 19¢ $21 29h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v BUY No 55¢ $51 37h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $51 37h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $416 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $203 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $202 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $257 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $256 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 26¢ $64 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $94 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $102 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $102 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $76 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $76 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $359 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $261 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $232 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 97¢ $198 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $152 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $652.35 · official $652.35 (match) · 1245 history records