trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? | Nov 13 | $243 | −$19 | -8% |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Nov 12 | $1,820,464 | +$7,866,341 | +432% |
| Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi | Nov 12 | $916,206 | +$12,251,206 | +1337% |
| Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? | Nov 07 | $20,618 | +$17,258 | +84% |
| Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Nov 07 | $6,504 | +$5,612 | +86% |
| Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | Nov 07 | $25,850 | +$29,150 | +113% |
| Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Nov 07 | $1,924 | +$126,467 | +6575% |
| Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? | Nov 07 | $170,450 | +$1,617,744 | +949% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $1,418,787 | +$398,005 | +28% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $2,778,897 | +$12,164,570 | +438% |
| Taylor Swift pregnant in 2024? | Oct 26 | $46 | +$4 | +8% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 11 | +497.0% | +440.1% | 91% | 82% | +425.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +440.1% | 82% | +425.0% |
| 10% | +388.5% | 82% | +374.8% |
| 15% ← realistic here | +341.3% | 73% | +328.9% |
| 20% | +298.0% | 73% | +286.9% |