Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:22:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x5668…1f91
crypto · 308 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,272 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,271 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,271
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses173 / 134
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)307 / 308
History coverage80d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 1 History 307 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$60
14 days−$78
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$5 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $35 −$8 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $32 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 07 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 07 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 06 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 05 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 04 $46 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 03 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 31 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 30 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 29 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 29 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 28 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 28 $9 +$1 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $46 −$5 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $29 −$18 -60%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $27 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 21 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 21 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 20 $13 +$2 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $30 −$18 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? May 18 $37 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 12 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 12 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 12 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 05 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 05 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 04 $5 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 65% −$581
other 23% −$378
sports 7% −$237
weather 3% −$71
finance 1% +$2
world 0% −$6
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $26 1h
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $35 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $46 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $45 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $21 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $12 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $9 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 16d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $12 17d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $29 18d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $27 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -37.8% -43.7% 50% 10% -30.4%
≤30d 36 -11.5% -19.9% 64% 25% -20.3%
≤90d 307 -3.3% -12.5% 56% 19% -15.3%
all 307 -3.3% -12.5% 56% 19% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 19% -15.3%
10% -20.9% 12% -23.4%
15% -28.5% 10% -30.8%
20% -35.5% 7% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 698 history records