Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:17:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5667…bb43 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,745 (-46%) realized −$2,745 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate23%7W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,394
7 days−$1,400
14 days−$1,400
30 days−$1,400
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$1,412
politics 27% −$1,118
world 18% −$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -30.0% -36.7% 33% 0% -48.5%
≤30d 3 -30.0% -36.7% 33% 0% -48.5%
≤90d 16 -22.9% -30.2% 19% 0% -53.6%
all 31 -17.1% -25.0% 23% 10% -52.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 10% -52.0%
10% -32.1% 6% -56.6%
15% -38.7% 3% -60.8%
20% -44.7% 3% -64.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$123 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,745
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses7 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage120d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1,495 +$87 +6%
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? Jun 20 $1,652 −$1,480 -90%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $85 −$52 -61%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 11 $1,319 −$1,071 -81%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 10 $1 $0 -22%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 09 $1 $0 -6%
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? May 03 $41 −$6 -15%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 03 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 02 $203 +$7 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 30 $31 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? Apr 26 $750 −$281 -38%
China coup attempt before 2027? Apr 20 $11 −$1 -7%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Apr 16 $10 −$2 -25%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $87 −$25 -28%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -80%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Mar 07 $105 −$15 -14%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 07 $5 −$2 -35%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Mar 01 $62 +$17 +27%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $16 +$2 +15%
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026? Feb 28 $1 $0 -10%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $7 +$6 +81%
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? Feb 27 $2 $0 -6%
Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Yi in 2026? Feb 27 $1 $0 -33%
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhao Leji in 2026? Feb 27 $1 $0 -25%
Will Xi Jinping purge Ding Xuexiang in 2026? Feb 27 $1 $0 -25%
Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Huning in 2026? Feb 27 $1 $0 -33%
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026? Feb 27 $1 $0 -20%
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? Feb 27 $3 $0 -9%
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Qiang in 2026? Feb 26 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $509 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $175 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $183 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $118 18h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $147 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $40 30h
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $39 30h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 39h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $97 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $97 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $63 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $52 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $93 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $76 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $55 22d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $52 23d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 23d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 29d
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $17 30d
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 33d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 34d
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 35d
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 37d
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes 15¢ $29 38d
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 40d
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 41¢ $30 41d
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 34¢ $54 41d
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 309 history records