Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:56:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5664…1612 crypto 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$240 (-8%) realized −$215 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%43W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$97
14 days−$96
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$200
other 33% −$83
sports 3% −$6
world 1% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -27.8% -34.7% 31% 15% -21.7%
≤30d 14 -25.1% -32.2% 36% 21% -21.4%
≤90d 80 -11.1% -19.6% 54% 38% -18.9%
all 80 -11.1% -19.6% 54% 38% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 38% -18.9%
10% -27.3% 22% -26.6%
15% -34.3% 19% -33.7%
20% -40.7% 10% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized−$215
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses43 / 37
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)80 / 83
History coverage57d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $194 $164 −$30 (-15%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+33%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 19 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $171 +$31 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $121 +$52 +43%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$3 -15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 −$2 -15%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 $0 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $42 +$44 +105%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $51 −$12 -24%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $51 +$11 +22%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $36 −$34 -96%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $21 −$11 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 16 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 16 $10 +$12 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 16 $15 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 16 $37 +$30 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 15 $52 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 15 $32 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 15 $71 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 15 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 15 $122 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 15 $21 −$9 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 15 $16 −$10 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 15 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 72¢ $49 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $50 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 92¢ $203 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $171 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 59¢ $14 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $16 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $104 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $33 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 7d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $199 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.22 · official $194.24 (match) · 263 history records