Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:53:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5663…f2e5 other 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$57 (-1%) realized −$104 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate55%66W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$116
14 days+$50
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$111
world 29% −$148
sports 15% +$99
weather 7% +$63
politics 3% −$47
tech 2% −$12
crypto 1% −$6
economics 0% −$2
culture 0% −$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -5.2% -14.3% 69% 29% -6.1%
≤30d 103 -4.4% -13.5% 59% 22% -10.9%
≤90d 120 -4.4% -13.5% 55% 20% -11.7%
all 120 -4.4% -13.5% 55% 20% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 20% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 6% -20.1%
15% -29.4% 2% -27.8%
20% -36.3% 2% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$1,370
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses66 / 54
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions30
Markets (closed)120 / 150
History coverage49d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $295 $303 +$8 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $140 $182 +$42 (+30%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? No 93¢ 92¢ $180 $179 −$1 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 85¢ 98¢ $124 $143 +$19 (+15%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 91¢ 90¢ $76 $75 −$1 (-1%)
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+1%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? No 95¢ 99¢ $38 $39 +$2 (+4%)
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 74¢ 76¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+4%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 65¢ 60¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-8%)
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $20 $22 +$1 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? No 78¢ 75¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-4%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No 66¢ 72¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+8%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 80¢ 72¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-11%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Yes 83¢ 65¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-22%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 96¢ 91¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-5%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$3 (-25%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 94¢ 96¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$4 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 −$9 -40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $120 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $240 +$8 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $31 +$2 +6%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $21 −$5 -22%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $18 +$2 +12%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $16 −$3 -19%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -29%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Jun 14 $59 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $219 −$29 -13%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $320 +$37 +12%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $181 +$37 +20%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 14 $14 +$2 +14%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 14 $64 +$13 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $70 +$7 +10%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $110 +$6 +6%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $7 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $256 +$20 +8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 13 $7 −$6 -82%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$1 +7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $65 +$1 +2%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $24 −$22 -90%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $45 +$2 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $13 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $25 +$2 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $16 +$3 +18%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $80 −$11 -14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +11%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +17%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$3 +31%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $29 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $27 +$4 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $35 −$3 -7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $122 +$10 +8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $7 −$6 -90%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $328 +$28 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? BUY No 72¢ $4 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $12 2h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026- BUY No 93¢ $118 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 3h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026- BUY No 93¢ $62 3h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $12 3h
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? BUY No 91¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 59¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 84¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 82¢ $14 5h
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 5h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 74¢ $6 5h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 73¢ $2 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $17 6h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 69¢ $7 6h
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? BUY No 77¢ $2 7h
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $4 8h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 69¢ $2 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $21 9h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,369.58 · official $1,369.58 (match) · 1275 history records